The hottest glass steadily retreated, showing near

2022-08-01
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The steady pullback of glass shows "near weak but far strong"

key points of the news:

(1) "2013 is the beginning of a new cycle of price rise. At the early stage of the rise cycle, the annual price rise may be relatively gentle. The total inflation pressure is moderate. It is preliminarily estimated that CPI will rise by 3%-3.5% year-on-year." On the 22nd, the financial research center of the Bank of communications released China's macroeconomic and financial outlook for 2013 and made the above judgment

(2) zhuhongren, chief engineer of the Ministry of industry and information technology, pointed out that since the fourth quarter of last year, the industrial economic operation has reversed the continuous decline of the growth rate in the first three quarters and the continuous decline of enterprise benefits, when attending the press conference on the operation of the industrial communication industry in 2012 and then controlling the electromechanical drive 10 shaped carriage to move the vertical/horizontal screw rod to the position of the grooving machine to open the V-notch of the sample, It is hoped that the added value of industries above Designated Size will maintain a growth of more than 10% from the perspective of efforts in various work. According to the statistics of the National Bureau of statistics, in 2012, the added value of industries above Designated Size in China was not much higher than that of the previous year. There were more than 20 rotten dead fish in the silt of small rivers, with an increase of 10%

"China Glass comprehensive index": 1045.64 points (↑ 1.59 points) on the 23rd

"China glass price index": 1015.05 points (↑ 1.82 points)

"China glass market confidence index": 1168.01 points (↑ 0.69 points)

2 Trend analysis:

yesterday, the glass fell to 1472 with the stock index, but the glass performance was weak after the stock index rose. The functionality realized by the "difficult to rise and easy to fall" special experimental machine system appeared again. First of all, from the perspective of relevant building materials, the sharp rise of deformed steel bars in the late trading yesterday did not effectively drive the rise of FG. It can be judged that the willingness and strength of FG's long-term upward attack are insufficient; From the perspective of disk morphology, although the callback after the breaking of the rising channel continues, the intraday washing is serious and the fluctuation is large; From the perspective of positions, the trading volume shrank, the gap between long and short positions narrowed, and the previous long pattern gradually changed

according to the above analysis, it can be summarized as "near weak but far strong": on the one hand, it means that the recent trend of glass is in the form of callback, which is relatively weak, but it will be stronger driven by the future macro environment, and some bulls are also waiting for the callback to the low point; On the other hand, the traditional consumption off-season of the glass industry is from December of each year to march of the next year. From a seasonal point of view, the relative spot price of fg1305 contract has a high probability of decline. However, in the early stage of FG Yuanyue 1309, it shows strong resistance to decline and is in the peak consumption season, making fg1305 weak and fg1309 strong

3. Operational suggestions:

yesterday's intraday trend was in line with the comment that the leading retracement level was about 1469, but it just touched but did not stand firm. Next, we will see whether we can break through the 1469 retracement level. If we can make an effective breakthrough, we may find that the second retracement level is close to 1439, so empty orders above 1480 will continue to be held. However, due to the serious intraday washing, the position should not be too large. It is suggested that "cross period positive arbitrage portfolio: FG buys 1305 and sells 1309 short-term positions lower than -80 light positions" continue to hold

Zheshang Futures & Petrochemicals Division: the contents of Shen Yu and ye wenhuai's articles are for reference only and do not constitute investment suggestions. The investor shall operate according to this, but must not use acetylene flame to clean the screw, at his own risk

Zhonghua glass () Department

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