The hottest glass spot trend is poor and will face

2022-08-07
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The glass spot market will face great downward pressure in the future due to the poor trend.

in the past month, the glass futures market has reappeared the "bull" market. The rapid and violent trend has amazed the market. Up to now, the rebound has been nearly 20%, especially in recent trading days, the glass futures price has increased more. However, the fundamentals of glass are not eye-catching. There has been a seasonal correction in the northern spot market. Recently, the net increased production capacity in the industry is also increasing. The rise of glass futures price lacks strong support. After the rapid rise, it faces a greater risk of correction

the northern spot market has made a substantial adjustment.

the seasonal development of glass. The thinking of headquarters economy is more obvious in Northeast China. Affected by the cold air, the operating rate of the Northeast building decoration market fell sharply. In the later stage, the price of internal powder still depends on the trend of billet price and external ore price. Generally speaking, the downstream downtime may last from November to March next year, and the continuous production of glass manufacturers has become a problem. Although actively exploring the export market, the glass ex warehouse is still affected to some extent. Since late October, many glass factories in Northeast China, such as Benxi Yingxin and Yingkou Xinyi, have significantly reduced their market prices, which have fallen by an average so far. [China Plastics online news] to explore the driving force for transforming the future of China's automobiles - Lightweight Technology and scientific and technological optimization and innovation, about 160 yuan/ton. The adjacent North China market has also fallen slightly due to the impact of the Northeast price reduction tide. Although the southern market is not affected by winter, it has only increased by 20 yuan/ton in the past month, and the performance is not satisfactory. From this point of view, the current trend of glass futures price is obviously stronger than that of the spot market

increase in net capacity of the industry

in terms of capacity, there was no cold repair and resumption of production of the glass production line in September. However, after October, the second line of Yufeng in Guangdong and the first line of Yingxin Xingtang in Hebei resumed production one after another. Even excluding a cold repair production line in Nanning, Guangxi, the daily output increased by 650 tons. In addition, under the dual pressure of environmental protection and supply side reform, the number of new production lines this year has been greatly reduced. In the first half of this year, only four new production lines were ignited. After a four month window period, Hebei Dejin built a new production line with a daily output of 1000 tons in late September. In the later period, Jinjing science and technology Ningxia will have a 500 ton planned ignition kiln. These production capacity will gradually form supply, thus restricting the unilateral rise of the market

the manufacturer may enter the stock accumulation period

from the inventory trend in recent years, the increase or decrease of inventory basically shows obvious seasonal changes, from the increase of inventory in the first quarter to the stabilization in the second quarter, to the rapid decline in the third quarter, and the gradual stock accumulation after November. However, the pace of inventory change this year was earlier than that in previous years. After a short rise at the beginning of the year, inventory began to decline since late April. In September, it hit a low since January 2014. It is not easy under the background of increasing production capacity

according to the data in recent weeks, enterprise inventory has begun to rise. After calculation, since the listing of glass, the correlation between the main contract price and inventory is -0. 84。 At present, the inventory of glass manufacturers has increased by 1.67 million weight compared with the low inventory in the year. As a graphene textile, it is more soft, not afraid of folding and washable than one chip box. However, in the same period, the price of glass has not decreased but increased. At present, it is much higher than the price level at the beginning of September. However, with the expected increase of inventory accumulation, it is difficult to maintain the high price of glass

to sum up, the recent trend of glass spot is poor. Under the pressure of the low construction rate in winter, the fall in demand will be detrimental to glass consumption, and the market will not have the power to continue to rise rapidly. It is expected that the future market will face greater downward pressure

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