The demand for the hottest resources is soaring, a

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Rising demand for resources global mining industry or facing sustained prosperity

rising demand for resources global mining industry or facing sustained prosperity

China Construction Machinery Information

"In the next 10-15 years, the increase in global demand for energy, iron ore, copper and aluminum will come from India and ASEAN countries, continue China's demand, and will promote the sustainable prosperity of global mining. After 2020, as India, Brazil and other countries successively enter the peak of industrialization, the global demand for resources will rise again, and resource prices will enter another rising cycle.

at present, ASEAN is in the process of economic development and consumption of mineral resources The stage of high dependence and the fastest growth rate is likely to become the successor of the global demand for important mineral resources, but demand cannot drive global consumption like China. Recently, Chen Jiabin, director of the Resource Office of the China Academy of land and resources economics, pointed out that in the next 10 to 15 years, the increase in global demand for energy, iron ore, copper and aluminum will come from India and ASEAN countries, continue China's demand, and will promote the sustainable prosperity of global mining industry. After 2020, as India, Brazil and other countries successively enter the peak of industrialization, the global demand for resources will rise again, and resource prices will enter another rising cycle

According to Chen Jiabin, with the development of the past "golden decade" of mining industry, driven by the investment of exploration funds and technology, which is fundamentally based on the word "manufacturing", new major mineral deposits continue to be discovered in the world, so that deposits that had no commercial value before can be economically developed and utilized. Most of the global bulk mineral resources reserves show an increasing trend. With regard to the currently proved mineral reserves, according to the current mining level, the reserve production ratio of most minerals in the world has reached 30% - 50%. At the same time, technological progress has expanded the scope and space for the development and utilization of mineral resources in an all-round way. A large number of unconventional energy, unconventional minerals, CO associated minerals, low-grade ores, refractory ores, and deposits that were previously difficult to meet industrial requirements have become economically exploitable, greatly improving the guarantee capacity of mineral resources

in fact, the global supply pattern of mineral resources is directly related to resource endowment. Countries and regions with relatively high resource abundance are often the main accumulation areas of supply. However, the major developed countries benefit from the relatively stable demand for resources and the mature recycling system of secondary resources. At the same time, for the purpose of protecting the ecological environment, the supply of resources tends to decrease. However, at present, the mineral products produced by the global resource powers are constantly flowing into developed countries and emerging developing countries through trade, and the increment of trade flow mainly flows to developing countries by 50 mm, making the global iron, copper, aluminum and other important minerals have formed a trade pattern with South America and Australia as the main exporters and China, Japan and South Korea as importers

the supply guarantee ability of mineral resources is generally good

in the global supply and demand relationship of mineral resources, the production and consumption of mineral products are closely related to economic development. Nearly 70 years after the Second World War, the world economy has experienced many cyclical laws of "recovery recovery development recession". The production and consumption of important mineral products have also experienced many iterations, but the total supply and demand of most mineral products are basically balanced and slightly surplus. Because many metals are indestructible and replaceable, that is, they can be recycled or found substitutes, which greatly alleviates the demand for primary minerals, and makes the global supply of mineral resources better

Wang Anjian, director of the global mineral resources strategic research center of the Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, said that the mineral resources consumption and economic development of developed countries present an "s" shaped evolution trajectory, reflecting some internal regular links between resource consumption and economic development. At different stages of economic growth, corresponding to the "s" shaped trajectory, it forms the take-off point, turning point and zero growth point of mineral resources consumption

specifically, the starting point of mineral resource consumption. Whether it is energy or other bulk mineral resources, the take-off point of per capita resource consumption is concentrated in per capita GDP of $2500~3000, which represents the transformation of a country from an agricultural society to an industrial society, and mineral resources begin to accelerate consumption. The turning point of mineral resources consumption, that is, the turning point of the growth rate of per capita mineral resources consumption from large to small. Due to the different nature and use of different resources, the location of this turning point is also different, which respectively corresponds to the major transformation period of economic structure. Steel and cement are structural materials, and their turning points focus on the per capita GDP of US $6000~7000, corresponding to the peak period of social infrastructure construction; The turning point of per capita energy consumption focuses on per capita GDP of US $1.1 million to US $12000, which corresponds to the beginning of a major transformation of the economic structure. After that, the growth rate of per capita energy demand began to decline. Zero growth point of mineral resources consumption. Internationally, the zero growth point of per capita consumption of steel and cement is concentrated in the period of per capita GDP of US $1.1 million to US $12000; The zero growth point of per capita energy consumption occurs when the per capita GDP is 2.2 million to 22000 US dollars, which marks the beginning of the post industrialization stage

for economic development, developing countries are increasingly willing to develop resources. Therefore, driven by different purposes and backgrounds, the current global supply pattern of mineral resources has entered an era in which developing countries and developed countries pay equal attention, but due to the different status of mining in the economies of various countries, the mode and trajectory of mining development in various countries will change differently

the consumption of major mineral products is still at a high level

at present, countries that have completed industrialization are still the main body of the world's consumption demand for mineral resources, but the proportion of consumption in the world is declining. With the acceleration of industrialization, the total scale of resource demand in developing countries continues to grow, accounting for an increasing proportion of the world, especially China, India and other populous countries, It is rapidly becoming the main gathering area of the world's demand for mineral products, which makes the global consumption center of mineral resources "move eastward" obvious

China is the largest consumer of energy and mineral resources in the world, and the consumption of major mineral products is still at a high level, especially oil, iron ore, copper and other bulk minerals, with imported resources accounting for more than 50% of consumption. Except for a few traditional advantageous minerals such as rare earth, tungsten and molybdenum, almost all major mineral resources in China are fully dependent on foreign countries, and the situation is still grim. Statistics show that coal accounts for about 66% of China's total energy consumption, oil consumption accounts for 17.1%, and low-carbon and non fossil energy such as natural gas, hydropower, nuclear power and wind power accounts for about 16.9% of the total. China is dominated by fossil fuels, and this energy structure has not undergone fundamental changes. Among them, oil is the core of China's energy problem and has also become a "symptom" in China's energy supply and demand, and the gap between supply and demand will become larger and larger

Wang Anjian introduced that China has entered the mid-term transformation and adjustment period of industrialization, and the demand for important bulk mineral resources is still growing slowly. Under the new economic normal, the growth rate of China's resource demand will fall comprehensively, which will significantly slow down the world's resource demand to a certain extent. However, (1) compared with the contraction, deformation and destruction of low carbon steel and cast iron, it is difficult to change the status of a major consumer country, and China's main mineral demand will reach its peak around 2020, It will reach its peak around 2025. At present, although the growth rate of resource demand slows down, the advantages of the whole industrial chain of resource companies are prominent, and the demand will still be at a high level, and the total resource demand is still huge. Especially affected by the international environment, the growth rate of China's main mineral products production, supply and marketing and mining fixed asset investment continued to fall, with a clear downward trend, and some even entered a negative growth trend

from the current stage of economic development in China, except that steel consumption is basically in the peak period, the demand for other bulk mineral resources, both in total and per capita, will rise slowly, but the growth rate has slowed down, and is in the slowdown period, resulting in a short-term oversupply. Due to the industrial structure adjustment and optimization being carried out in China, the demand for mineral products in other industries cannot rise significantly in a short time. In addition, the environmental protection requirements for resource development are becoming higher and higher, and the development cost is rising. Mining will become a high threshold industry and face severe challenges under the new normal. Therefore, the development of mining industry should actively adapt to the new normal, relying on reform and innovation. In the transformation of mode and structure, we should use modern technology and equipment to transform traditional mining industry, and promote the adjustment of mining structure and industrial upgrading

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